CAD/USD Parity: Reality or Illusion?
February 15th, 2010 admin
In January, the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) registered its worst monthly performance since June. Many analysts pointed to this as proof that its run was over, after coming tantalizingly close to parity. Others insisted that the decline was only a temporary correction, a mere squaring of positions before the Loonie’s next big run. Who’s right? Both ! There are (at least) two separate narratives presently weighing on the Loonie. The first is causing it to decline against its arch-rival, the US Dollar, for reasons that essentially have nothing to do with the Canadian Dollar and everything to do with the US Dollar. Specifically, the mini-crisis that is playing out in Greece and the EU has caused risk aversion to resurface, such that …
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Only a year ago, who could have conceived of such a possibility? At the time, the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) was in the doldrums, as a result of the credit crunch and concomitant collapse in commodity prices. In March, however, the Loonie began an extraordinary rally, and finished the year up 16%, almost perfectly offsetting the record decline...
The Canadian Dollar’s performance of late has been eerily redolent of its sudden rise in 2007, when propelled by nothing more than sheer momentum, it rose 20% against the Dollar and breached the parity mark (1:1) en route to a 30-year high. [Of course, we all remember what happened next: the credit crisis struck, and the Loonie plummeted even...
Sorry I haven’t blogged as much in recent days but I have been swamped with gearing up for my trip to Singapore later this month – I will be speaking at the ATIC expo , so come by if you are around. First an update of My Favorite Trades . In mid March, I moved on from AUD/NZD to USD/CAD and EUR/GBP. At that time, I said I was looking...
I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about the outlook for the Canadian dollar and whether the loonie will experience a sustained break below parity. Readers of my blog will know that I have been anticipating this move for some time! Click on the image to access the video interview.
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USD/CAD made it to parity. Riding on the dollar’s weakness and rising oil prices, the Canadian dollar matches the US dollar for the first time in 20 months. Where will it go next? The Canadian dollar equals one American one, and even more. USD/CAD dropped under 1.00 for the first time since July 2008 – just before the financial crisis....
Canadian jobs didn’t were slightly disappointing, with a smaller than expected gain in jobs. This sent USD/CAD above parity. The battle around parity isn’t over. Canadian Employment Change showed a gain of 17,900 jobs, worse than last month’s 20,900 gain and the early expectations that stood on 25,900. The unemployment rate remained...
USD/CAD is now falling and approaching an important resistance line. This happens as the US dollar is strong, with traders focusing on the collapse of the Pound. The loonie has reasons to rise – a strong economy that is accelerating. The pair is now facing a test: The dollar is storming through the markets. This is strongly felt in GBP/USD....
It sounds like the beginning to a bad joke, right? But seriously, why is the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) beating the Australian Dollar (AUD) when the two currencies are placed head-to-head? The currency markets tend to be very Dollar-Centric, in that they tend to view most currencies relative to the US Dollar (and to a lesser extent, the Euro),...
The Euro has now declined for six consecutive months against the Dollar. It is down 25% from its 2008 high and 15% in the year-to-date. It declined 8% in the month of May alone. En route to a four year low, the Euro also fell below the 50% retracement level ($1.21) of its rally from 2000-2008. It’s now too clear where the Euro is headed:...
The battle for parity will continue in the upcoming week, as Canadian GDP will be published together with the same American figure. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The Canadian dollar had an exciting week. The...
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