Labour day is unofficially the end of the summer in the US financial markets, so, although the UK and Europe are returning to work (the rest of the world never stops working we know), in this vacuous state of current market theme it may be a case of “No, you go first.. No please .. After you”. Because it certainly feels as though no one REALLY wants to do anything and true commitment to trades is very light and can be swung on a dime.... 

Here endeth the Summer. We hope you have enjoyed your break in the market’s road side service station, because it’s time to climb back on board before heading back out onto the highway. Remember, tiredness kills. Unfortunately too many Macro punters, instead of sitting back and sipping overpriced “beverage-like products” surrounded by screaming kids have been out playing with the traffic and come off worst. Or have done a... 

Sorry for the lack of posts, but, hopefully, frequency will increase as TMM pack away their beach towels and knotted hankies for another year. But for now we would just like to say that if the rest of peripheral Europe are taking the crisis anywhere near as seriously as Greece is, then the whole place is f%”ked. We have just found …  Read More →

For those of you that have been following international politics lately, Australia has managed to follow the UK’s lead in getting itself into the one big mess possible in a Westminster system: a hung parliament. There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives in what the locals commonly refer to as “God’s Country” and in order to form government you need 76 of them. At this point in time the historically teamster-oriented... 

Team Macro Man is sure they are not alone in struggling for inspiration in these summer markets, so it seems like a perfect time for another batch of questions. Will the 10yr Treasury yield breach 2% this year? When will the Japanese intervene? Will the US finally get tough with China in the run up to the mid-terms? When will the UK have a 4% CPI print? What will US GDP be for 2H 2010? Will SNB LLC resume macro punting (aka EURCHF interventions)... 

It is now two months since Team Macro Man’s arch nemesis, Voldemort, announced that it would increase the “flexibility” of the Yuan, a move many interpreted to mean the resumption of the gradual pre-Olympics pace of appreciation. But no, to TMM’s and they are sure, many other punters’ dismay, that is in fact *not* what it meant. It was just another worthless attempt to…  Read More →

As regular readers will know, Team Macro Man detest currency piss-taking, especially from the likes of Voldemort and the dark side of the force, but on certain occasions, agree it is useful as a policy tool, but only when the conditions are right. The $200bn Swiss hedge fund run by ex-Moore trader Philipp Hildebrand screwed up on this front, because the man himself forgot that there are circumstances under which intervention is successful, and... 

The biggest loser from recent US monetary policy has been the Nikkei, which has seen a 6.2% top to bottom move since the FOMC announcement through the US/JP rate spreads driving USD/JPY and hence, the Nikkei. This, of course, is being exacerbated by the Yen being the new default counter currency as we are so keen to sell everything else (see below chart: USDJPY – white, Nikkei – orange, 2yr US/Japan yield spread – yellow, 10yr... 

We started by beating up on USD 18 months ago, as we thought QE and the US printing press would devalue the dollar and raced into Euro as they were obviously less willing to print. Then this year has seen the Euromare surface and we started selling Euros and piling into USD because at least the US had taken action and Europe were behind the woe curve and about to go through the same. Then in mid-flight the Eurostriches suddenly stuck their heads... 

Despite you probably thinking that is, or should be, a comment on our recent thoughts on the market, it is not. We remain steadfast, though Mr. Market appears to be totally focused on (and is pricing accordingly for) this happening – Instead we are referring to the timeless English classic radio series “I’m Sorry I haven’t a Clue” . Now our overseas readership probably haven’t got a clue about “clue”,... 

Yes, we mean “NFI”…  Read More →

One sector that is glaringly not singing to the Deflationistas’ hymn sheet is commodities. While a rapidly-growing global population continues to compete, like bacteria on a Petri dish, for the basic resources of food and energy, the input component to basic living will keep local prices firm even in an environment of other localised deflationary pressures. The world is still steadily competing for raw materials, so any slow down in the... 

If Mr. Market is asking questions on whether we get Deflation or Inflation , you’d think that he had been on a telephone sales course selling Deflation and received a Distinction in “closed question” asking. “So Sir, would you be taking the ‘Really Bad Deflation’ or the ‘Not Quite So Bad Deflation’ or maybe our ‘Japanese Deflation’ option?”. We understand that equity market players... 

Plenty of debate out there over whether we are in a deflationary growth period or a deflationary slowdown. Is the “I” word verboten these days? But there are some odd things out there and we are pondering the following: – Bonds and equities both rallying. – Copper and all things China related were trading up as if we had a stimulus package coming but by this afternoon Mrs Market felt very deprived of stimulus. – Yen... 

With TMM beginning to find the UK ONS data dubious and Merv bending the stats to suit his base rate-linked mortgage, we thought it time to dispatch ourselves out there to get our own TMM feel of what is really going on. So we headed West … In the UK there has always been a corner of Cornwall that is forever Chelsea. It’s called Rock. And its neighbour, Polzeath, is Fulham-on-Sea. Together they are the “Hamptons” of England...